Every year at about this time, Ottawa University Professor Michael Geist comes out touting the latest Nielsen Soundscan numbers as evidence of a thriving Canadian market for digital music sales. Every year, he compares the U.S. numbers to Canada and proudly points to our growing digital music market compared to our southern neighbours:

• Canada a World Leader in Digital Download Sales Growth
• Canadian Digital Music Sales Outperform the U.S. – Again
• Canadian Digital Music Sales Growth Beats The U.S. For the 4th Straight Year

However, if you read the fine print of these articles, every year Professor Geist has to sheepishly admit that while the growth rate is indeed greater in Canada than the U.S., the total market (per capita) is much lower in Canada. So much lower, in fact, that even after four consecutive years of faster growth, the Canadian digital music market still significantly lags the U.S.

The truth is that each successive year that Michael Geist touts Canada’s stronger growth rate compared to the U.S. only serves to highlight how far behind we truly are.

But if we are to use growth rate as the leading measure for a market’s viability, here are some of my 2010 predictions, based on reported growth rates:

• Disk capacity growth rate slowing – this is the first sign of the inevitable end of digital data storage
• Wireless phone market growing slower than cable market – glad I never got rid of my landline
• Search engine market growth rate slowing - I knew my index cards investments would pay off some day
• Witchcraft growing faster than other religions – magic broomsticks are the new iPad!

Joking aside, unless you look at an incredibly specific indicator like Professor Geist (growth in sales of digital music in Canada compared to growth in sales of digital music in the U.S.) the reality of these Nielsen numbers is that the Canadian music market continues to be in peril. For the 10th straight year, the Canadian music sales declined over the previous years. I’m not sure if Professor Geist read the actual report, but it leads off with the following two “2009 Canadian Year-End Factoids:”

“Total Album sales declined 2.2% compared to 2008, continuing a trend of declining music sales in Canada.

Increased digital growth in 2009 did not offset the decline in physical sales.”

As usual, Professor Geist ends his article by attempting to tie whatever incredibly specific measurement metric he’s chosen out of the Nielsen report to Canadian copyright law. Growth rates of digital sales as compared to one other country aside, the only logical conclusion that can be drawn from these reports is that something must be done in Canada to reverse these consistently declining figures. Combined with the recent reports of Canada as a leader in hosting piracy websites, the continued decade-long decline in music sales in Canada only highlights the urgent need for reform.